German Exports Grow For Third Month, Trade Surplus Unexpectedly Increases

Although at a slower pace, German exports increased for the third month in a row in August on rising global demand. The better-than-expected export growth helped the trade surplus to increase surprisingly, strengthening recovery hopes.

According to provisional data released by the Federal Statistical Office on Tuesday, exports rose by a calendar and seasonally adjusted 2.3% month-on-month in July, slower than a downwardly revised 6.1% increase in June, but larger than the 1.2% rise expected by economists. Annually, exports slipped 18.7% to EUR 70.5 billion.

At the same time, imports remained flat on a monthly comparison in July versus a revised 5.9% rise in June and the expected rise of 1%. Germany imported commodities worth EUR 56.6 billion, down 22.3% from July 2008.

Monthly growth for exports and imports for June was upwardly revised from 7% and 6.8%, respectively.

In July, the trade surplus increased to EUR 13.9 billion from a revised surplus of EUR 12.1 billion in June. The consensus forecast for July was EUR 11.3 billion. A year ago, the trade balance recorded a surplus of EUR 14 billion.

Meanwhile, the current account surplus totaled EUR 11 billion compared to June’s revised EUR 13.5 billion. But,the surplus stood above the expected EUR 10 billion. The surplus for July include a deficit of EUR 3.3 billion in services, factor income net of EUR 4.3 billion, negative EUR 2.7 billion in current transfers and supplementary trade items of minus EUR 1.2 billion.

Germany dispatched commodities worth EUR 43.4 billion to the EU member states, while it received commodities to the value of EUR 37.1 billion from those nations. From July 2008, exports to and imports from the EU nations slipped 20.5% and 20.4%, respectively.

Meanwhile, exports to euro area totaled EUR 29.4 billion, down 19.5% from last year, while the value of the commodities received from those countries amounted to EUR 26.7 billion, which was 20.5% lower than in July 2008.

Exports of commodities to nations outside the European Union or third countries declined 15.7% to EUR 27.1 billion in July and imports from those countries fell 25.7% to EUR 19.5 billion.

A report released by the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology on September 7 revealed a 3.5% monthly growth in factory orders in July, marking the fifth consecutive rise. A rise in the new orders in the third quarter is also likely to result in industrial output growth, the ministry said.

The ministry is slated to issue the industrial output data for July at 6.00am ET. After falling 0.1% in June, industrial production is expected to grow 1.6% in July.

According to the Paris-based Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s latest Interim Economic Assessment, global recovery from the recession is likely to arrive earlier than expected. Eurozone GDP is expected to fall 3.9% versus previous estimate of a 4.8% decline. The decline forecast for German GDP was upwardly revised to 4.8% from 6.1% for 2009.

UK July Manufacturing Output Growth Tops Expectations; Biggest Rise Since Jan. 2008

UK manufacturing output recorded the strongest growth since January 2008 on robust auto production in July.

Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics reported that the British manufacturing output grew for the second month in a row with a 0.9% rise in July. Economists were expecting the monthly growth to ease to 0.3% from a revised 0.6% in June.

Output increased in eight of the 13 sub-sectors and decreased in four sub-sectors with one sub-sector remaining flat in July. Transport equipment industries showed the most significant output growth of 3.8%, followed by chemical and man-made fibres industries with a 3.3% rise.

Despite decreases in utility as well as mining and quarrying sectors, industrial production recorded a monthly rise of 0.5% in July, slightly slower than the revised 0.6% growth seen in June. However, monthly growth was better than the consensus forecast of 0.2%. Mining and quarrying output decreased 1% with a decrease in oil and gas production, while energy supply output was down 0.2%.

Annually, manufacturing and industrial production declined 10.1% and 9.3%, respectively in July. Economists were looking for a 11.1% fall in manufacturing and a 10.1% drop in industrial output.

In the three months to July, manufacturing output slipped 11.4% from the same period of previous year and industrial output dropped 10.7%.

Driven by the car scrappage scheme, new car registrations rose 6% year-on-year to 67,006 units in August. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders data showed that the increase in July was the first since April last year.

Commenting on the latest data, Chief Economist at the British Chambers of Commerce, David Kern said manufacturing output data supports the assessment that the third quarter of the year might show a return to economic growth. But, the early stages of upturn would be driven by a turnaround in stock levels, so it is important to retain the stimulus provided by quantitative easing.

The Bank of England is set to announce its interest rate decision on September 10. The central bank is widely expected to leave the interest rate untouched at a record low of 0.5% and to continue its GBP 175 billion asset purchase programme.

The British manufacturing sector shrunk in August, according to a monthly survey from the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply and Markit Economics. The manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.7 in August from 50.2 in July.

A survey report by the manufacturers’ organization EEF and BDO Stoy Hayward on September 8 said a recovery in the UK manufacturing sector is likely to take some time to gain footing, due to continued uncertainty regarding the strength of the markets, and tighter credit conditions weighing on recovery prospects into the next year.

Australia Retail Sales Drop Unexpectedly In July

Australian retail sales continued to decline for the second straight month in July, the Australian Bureau of Statistics announced Wednesday. The bureau also released the housing finance statistics for July, with total housing finance commitments in the country swinging to a monthly decline for the first time in ten months.

Retail trade dropped a seasonally adjusted 1% month-on-month in July, which is faster than the 0.8% drop in June. Economists were looking for 0.5% growth. The total retail turnover amounted to A$19.62 billion in July compared to the A$19.82 billion turnover witnessed in the previous month. The decline in retailing was largely a result of falling sales of household goods and food in July.

Household goods retailing declined at a monthly rate of 3.6% in July, compared to the 3.4% growth in the previous month. Food retailing decreased 1.9%, and clothing, footwear & personal accessory sales fell 0.6%.

On the other hand, retailing in department stores recorded the biggest rise in July, up 2.5% on month compared to the 9.7% drop in June. Retailing in cafes, restaurants & takeaway food services retailing was up 1%, while other retailing increased 0.8% in July.

Analyzing by individual states, retail trade declined 1.4% in both Queensland and South Australia. Retailing in New South Wales fell 1.2%, while sales in Western Australia dropped 0.9%. On the other hand, retail trade in Northern Territory registered a monthly rise, up 2% in July.

The bureau also revealed that approvals for housing finance in July fell a seasonally adjusted 2% from the previous month, exceeding economists’ expectations of a 1% decline. The monthly fall in housing finance commitments was the first recorded since the 0.9% drop witnessed in September 2008. In June, approvals for housing finance were up 0.4% month-on-month.

The total housing finance commitments in July were worth A$22.46 billion in July, down 2.3% from the A$22.99 billion reported in June.

Owner occupied housing constituted A$16.88 billion of the total. Of this, the number of dwelling constructions declined 0.7% on month compared to the 2.7% growth in the last month. Purchases of new dwellings fell 0.5%, while purchases of established dwellings dropped 2.3% in July.

Moreover, refinancing of established dwellings fell 1.7%, excluding which owner occupied housing finance commitments decreased 2.2% in July.

From a lender’s perspective, the number of owner occupied dwellings financed by banks fell 2.3% in July compared to the 0.7% increase in the previous month, while those financed by non-banks rose 0.2%.

Earlier in the day, Westpac bank and the Melbourne Institute announced that consumer sentiment in Australia climbed to its highest level since July 2007, in the month of September.

The consumer confidence index was at 119.3, rising 5.2% in September compared to the 113.4 reading in the previous month. Westpac’s Chief Economist, Bill Evans, said, “This is a truly extraordinary result. The standout story is the ‘relief rally’ for consumers - relief that the economy has avoided recession and that expected job losses have not materialized.”

Over the last four months, the index grew 34.4%, which is the largest 4 month increase in the history of the index, the report said.

“The case for a rate hike as early as next month has been strengthened considerably by this further surge in confidence”, Evans noted. The Reserve Bank of Australia had left the interest rate unchanged at 3% last week.

Meanwhile, the Australian dollar pared its early Asian session’s gains against other major currencies following the release of the retail trade data. The aussie thus fell from a fresh yearly high against the U.S. dollar and multi-week high against the yen.

European Economics Preview: UK External Trade Data Due

Wednesday, UK’s external trade data is due.

At 2.00am ET, Germany’s Federal Statistical Office is set to issue a final report for August CPI. According to preliminary estimate, consumer prices remained unchanged on an annual basis in August. The statistical office is expected to confirm the initial estimate.

At 3.00am ET, the Czech CPI and Hungarian trade balance reports are due. Czech annual inflation is forecast to stay at 0.3% in August.

Half an hour later, the Statistics Sweden is scheduled to issue industrial orders and industrial production reports for July. After declining 20.8% annually in June, industrial output is expected to fall 21.2% in July.

At 4.30am ET, UK’s Office for National Statistics is scheduled to issue external trade data. The visible trade deficit is seen at GBP 6.25 billion in July, smaller than the GBP 6.45 billion in June. Meanwhile, total trade deficit is expected to fall to GBP 2 billion from GBP 2.17 billion in June.

UK Consumer Confidence Improves Further In August: Nationwide

Consumer confidence in the UK improved further in August, reflecting an increase in consumer’s assessment of their present situation, willingness to spend and the outlook for future months.

The Nationwide Building Society reported Wednesday that its consumer confidence index rose to 63 from an upwardly revised 61 in July, and also came in higher than economists’ expectations for a reading of 62.

The August reading is the highest since May 2008, when the index stood at 66. The latest survey was carried out in partnership with the market research group TNS from July 20 to August 23 among 1,000 people.

“The moderate increase in confidence this month indicates that, for the first time since April, consumers are beginning to feel more positive not only about the future, but also about the present situation,” Martin Gahbauer, chief economist with Nationwide said.

The present situation index rose one point to 17 in August, after reaching an all-time low in July. The gauge rose for the first time since April. The expectations index increased by three points to 94 and the spending index climbed one point to 97. However, consumers continued to remain cautious about making major purchases.

“The rise in positive sentiment across all the indices is no surprise as a number of key economic indicators continue to show that we may have reached the bottom of the current recessionary cycle”, Nationwide said.

Shop prices dropped 0.1% year-on-year in August, marking their first decline since February 2007, the British Retail Consortium said on Wednesday.

On Tuesday, an official report showed that manufacturing output rose for the second consecutive month in July and at the fastest pace since January 2008, boosted by a rise in auto production. Output grew 0.9% in July, after a 0.6% rise in June.

Moreover, a report by Manpower released Tuesday showed that hiring intentions for the fourth quarter rose for the first time in three years.

Further, a report released today by Markit Economics, on behalf of the Recruitment & Employment Confederation and KPMG, showed that the job market in the UK showed signs of improvement in August, reflecting a rise in both temporary and permanent staff.

Even with all the positive news, Nationwide noted that there was likely to be a slow recovery. The report said, “It is likely that there will be a protracted recovery and we may see some volatility in the data as factors such as the rise in fuel duty affect sentiment.”

A similar view was echoed by Bernard Brown, Partner and Head of Business Services at KPMG who said it was too early to speculate whether the improvement in the job market signaled the end of the recession.

Elsewhere, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in its latest report pointed out that even though GDP grew 0.2% in the three months ended August,there could now be a period of stagnation, with output rising in a few months and declining in others. Further, it warned that the end of recession did not mean a return to normal economic conditions.

On August 9, the British Chamber of Commerce said the UK economy could contract faster than earlier expected. The BCC said the economy is likely to contract 4.3% this year, worse than a 3.8% drop estimated in June.

However, it expects the economy to grow at a faster than initially expected pace in 2010. The UK economy is projected to grow 1.1% next year, better than a 0.6% growth anticipated earlier. In 2011, growth is expected to rise to 1.9%.

Japan’s Economic Indexes Rise In July Suggesting Recovery

Economic conditions in Japan improved in July and the economy is moving towards a positive direction, the Cabinet Office’s business conditions indexes suggested Wednesday.

The coincident index, a measure to identify the current state of the economy, increased to 89.6 from 88.6 in June, representing the fourth consecutive month of increase. It was expected to rise to 89.

Further, the leading index, which is used to anticipate changes in the direction of the economy, rose to 83 in July from 80.9 in the preceding month. Economists expected a reading of 81.9. The index rose for the fifth consecutive month in July.

However, the lagging index that is used to confirm turning points and business cycle phases, dropped to 82.4 from 84.1 recorded May and June.

The Japanese economy pulled out of its worst recession since World War II in the second quarter on government stimulus measures and strong exports. Real gross domestic product expanded 3.7% on an annualized basis during the three months to June, after shrinking for four straight quarters.

A day earlier, the Cabinet Office said in its monthly economic report for September that the Japanese economy is showing movements of picking up recently despite being in a difficult situation such as a rise in the unemployment rate to an all-time high. The jobless rate hit 5.7% in July, up from 5.4% in June.

However, the government expects the economy to pick up, reflecting completion of inventory adjustment, effects of the policy packages and improvement of external economic conditions.

But, calls for a gradual withdrawal of stimulus measures have risen. Bank of Japan board member Miyako Suda said on Wednesday that the need for extraordinary measures is diminishing as corporate financing conditions improved recently.

In a speech in Nagasaki, Suda said, “We should not underestimate the drawbacks” of unconventional steps.” She added that continuing these abnormal measures for a long time could harm self-correcting mechanism of market.

UK Trade Deficit Remains Unchanged In July

Wednesday, the British overall as well as visible trade deficits remained unchanged in July. With rising global demand, exports recorded the biggest monthly growth since January 2008.

A report from the Office for National Statistics revealed on Wednesday that the deficit on trade in goods and services totaled GBP 2.4 billion in July, unchanged from June. The deficit for June was revised from the initial estimate of GBP 2.2 billion. Economists had expected the shortfall to narrow to GBP 2 billion in July.

The visible trade deficit was GBP 6.5 billion in July, unchanged from June. Exports and imports of goods increased by GBP 0.9 billion each. The visible trade deficit was larger than the expected shortfall of GBP 6.2 billion.

British exports of goods grew 5% month-on-month in July, the biggest increase since January 2008. Goods worth GBP 19.2 billion were exported in July. At the same time, total imports of goods increased 3.5% to GBP 25.7 billion.

The ONS report showed that the trade in goods with both EU and non-EU nations resulted in deficits in July. While the deficit with EU nations narrowed, the non-EU shortfall increased from the prior month.

The visible trade deficit with EU nations dipped to GBP 2.6 billion in July from GBP 2.8 billion in June. Exports to EU nations climbed 6.5% and imports from EU moved up 3%.

Meanwhile, the deficit with non-EU countries widened to GBP 3.9 billion from GBP 3.7 billion in June. Shipments to non-EU countries were up 3%, while imports from those nations grew 4.5%.

As the summer maintenance work curbed North Sea production, the oil deficit reached the highest level in a year. The shortfall stood at GBP 537 million in July, up from GBP 433 million in June.

At the same time, the visible trade deficit was partially offset by the surplus in services. The trade in services showed GBP 4 billion surplus versus June’s GBP 4.1 billion.

In an interview to BBC, former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan said UK would be harder hit than the U.S. by the current recession and collapse in world trade.

In a report released on Wednesday, Moody’s said it is unlikely to downwardly revise the Aaa-rated sovereigns in the near term. The rating agency said the UK and USA have lost height in the Aaa space and continue to warrant its characterization as “resilient”. However, to maintain this status, UK and US will have to severely adjust their fiscal policies, even in the unlikely event of a strong rebound of their economies, the report said.

Fed’s Beige Book Says Economic Activity Has Continued To Stabilize

Economic activity continued to stabilize in July and August, according to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report, a compilation of anecdotal evidence on economic conditions from each of the 12 Federal Reserve districts.

The report released Wednesday afternoon noted that Dallas indicated that economic activity had firmed since the last report, while Boston, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Richmond, and San Francisco also mentioned signs of improvement.

Additionally, Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas City, Minneapolis, and New York generally described economic activity as stable or showing signs of stabilization, and St. Louis remarked that the pace of decline appeared to be moderating.

The Fed added that most districts indicated that the outlook for economic activity among their business contacts remained cautiously positive.

Nonetheless, the report said that consumer spending remained soft in most regions, with a majority of the Fed districts reporting that retail activity was flat.

While Boston, Philadelphia, and Kansas City noted some improvement in sales, the increase was primarily attributed to back-to-school purchases.

Most districts said that the cash-for-clunkers program helped to boost traffic and sales, although Cleveland and Kansas City said that the program had an adverse effect on used car sales.

At the same time, most regions reported some improvement in the residential real estate markets, with Chicago, Richmond, Boston, and San Francisco observing an uptick in sales over the last six weeks. However, sales largely remained below the year-ago levels.

With regard to the commercial real estate markets, the reports indicated that demand for space remained weak and construction continued to decline.

The report also said that most districts reported that loan demand was weak and that credit standards remained tight.

Meanwhile, most districts noted improvements in manufacturing production, with Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, Cleveland, and Chicago all reporting moderate increases in new orders.

The Fed added, “The near-term outlook among manufacturers varied, but the majority of reports indicated that manufacturers were cautiously optimistic.”

While the report also showed that labor market conditions remained weak, staffing firms in Atlanta, Dallas, Richmond, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Boston, New York, and Chicago did report a slight pickup in the demand for temporary workers.

The Federal Reserve will use the information in the Beige Book report when it makes its next decision on interest rates following a two-day meeting ending September 23rd. The Fed is widely expected to leave its target range for the federal funds rate at 0.0 to 0.25 percent.

Japan Machinery Orders Drop In July

Thursday, the Cabinet Office of Japan announced that Japanese core machinery orders plummeted month-on-month in July, with the decline being driven by falling machinery orders in the manufacturing sector. The latest data signaled that Japanese firms remained wary of an economic recovery and are still cutting down on investment.

Core machinery orders fell a seasonally adjusted 9.3% in July compared to the 9.7% rise in the previous month. Economists were looking for a more modest 3.5% decrease. Including volatile orders, private sector machinery orders were down 1.5% from June.

Of the core private sector machinery orders, orders in the manufacturing sector slipped 20.4% month-on-month in July, compared to the 14.6% increase in the previous month. Orders in the core non-manufacturing sector also dropped, down 2.8% in July from the 7.3% growth witnessed in June.

Analyzing by industries in the manufacturing sector, non-ferrous metals recorded the biggest monthly decline, down 85.7% in July. It was followed by other transport equipment, which decreased 50.1%, and iron & steel, down 36.5%. General machinery orders plummeted 32% in July.
The fall was partly offset by orders in the petroleum & coal products industry group, which soared 51.2%. Other notable increases include, paper & paper products, which rose 37.8%, and precision instruments, up 32.5%.

In the non-manufacturing sector, machinery orders in mining witnessed the biggest fall, down 46.3% in July. On the other hand, orders in the electricity supply industry ballooned 50.4%, and orders in finance & insurance was up 25.6%.

On a yearly basis, core machinery orders in the private sector plunged 34.8% in July, faster than the 29.7% drop in the previous month. Economists had predicted orders to fall 31%.

Also, machinery orders in the government sector was up 25.2% on a monthly basis in July, while orders from overseas increased 21.8%. Machinery orders through agencies increased 5.7% in July. The total machinery orders comprising all the above categories, and also including orders in the private sector, rose 7.5% month-on-month.

The Cabinet Office predicted core machinery orders to drop 8.6% in the current September quarter, following the 4.9% fall in the June quarter.

Meanwhile, in a separate report released earlier in the day, the Bank of Japan revealed that the Japanese domestic corporate goods price index was down 8.5% year-on-year in August. The index was roughly inline with analyst expectations for an annual contraction of 8.3% following the 8.5% decline in July.

In terms of commodities, general machinery & equipment prices was down 1.3% on year in July. Other significant decreases include, processed foodstuff prices, which decreased 0.5%, while electric power, gas & water prices went down 9%. Prices of chemicals & related products slid 13.2%

The fall in prices across the board was slightly offset by transport equipment, which increased at an annual rate of 3.8% in July. Prices of ceramic, stone & clay products was up 2.8%, while pulp, paper & related products prices increased 1.1%.

On a monthly basis, the prices for domestic corporate goods remained flat. Forecasts had predicted an increase of 0.2% following the 0.4% gain in the previous month.

The Japanese yen was little changed against its major opponents following the release of the machinery orders and domestic corporate goods price index reports.

European Economics Preview: BoE Expected To Retain Key Rate

Thursday, the Bank of England is set to announce its interest rate decision. The central bank is widely expected to leave the interest rate untouched at a record low of 0.5% and to continue its GBP 175 billion asset purchase programme.

At 2.45am ET, the French statistical office INSEE is scheduled to issue industrial production data. Month-on-month, industrial production is forecast to rise 0.4% in July and manufacturing output growth is seen at 0.5%.

Thereafter, the Hungarian CPI and Turkish GDP reports are due. Economists forecast Hungarian annual inflation to rise to 5.8% in August from 5.1% in July. The Turkish economy is forecast to shrink 8% annually in the second quarter.

Half an hour later, consumer prices details are due from Denmark and Sweden. Sweden consumer prices are forecast to drop 1% annually in August compared to a 0.9% fall in July. Meanwhile, Danish annual inflation is expected to rise to 1.1% in August from 1% in July.

At 4.00am ET, the European Central Bank is set to issue monthly bulletin. In the meantime, Norwegian CPI and PPI reports are also due.

At 5.00am ET, a final report for the second quarter GDP is due from the Italian statistical office.

Australian Jobless Rate Holds Steady In August

Australia’s seasonally adjusted jobless rate remained unchanged at a near six-year high for the third consecutive month in August, an official report showed Thursday.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics said Thursday that the jobless rate held steady at 5.8% for the third consecutive month in August, but came in lower than economists’ expectations for 5.9%. The last time the jobless rate stood at 5.8% for three consecutive months was in 2003, in August, September and October, respectively.

In August, even though the jobless rate was unchanged, the number of unemployed persons decreased slightly to 663,600 from 665,700 in the preceding month. The jobless rate for males decreased to 6% from 6.2%, while for females, the rate increased to 5.6% from 5.4%.

The number of employed persons also decreased slightly to 10.76 million from 10.79 million in the preceding month. The number looking for full-time work decreased by 8,800 to 488,100, while the number looking for part-time work increased by 6,600 to 175,500.

During the month, there were 11.42 million persons in the labor force, down from 11.45 million in the preceding month. The participation rate was also down to 65.1% from 65.3%.

Meanwhile, other indicators have pointed to an improvement in labor market conditions in the country. A report released by the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations on Wednesday showed that the leading indicator of employment rose for the third consecutive month in September. The index increased to minus 0.962 for September from a revised reading of minus 1.123 in August.

The department said the indicator was tentatively foreshadowing a quickening in the pace of employment growth to above its long-term trend rate of 1.9% per annum. “Another three consecutive monthly increases in the indicator are required to confirm that there was a turning point in the indicator in June 2009″, it said.

The total job advertisements in newspapers and on the internet rose 4.1% in August, marking the first monthly rise since April last year, following a 1.7% fall in July, the ANZ Bank said last week.

Various economic news released earlier have also pointed to a recovery in the Australian economy. Business confidence jumped to its highest level in six years in August, reflecting better business conditions. An index measuring business confidence released by the National Australia Bank on Wednesday rose eight points to 18, the highest since October 2003. Moreover, consumer confidence jumped to a 13-month high in September. The Westpac/Melbourne consumer sentiment index rose 5.2% month-on-month in September to its highest level since July 2007.

Elsewhere on Thursday, the Melbourne Institute announced that its consumer inflationary expectations stood at 3.5% for the second consecutive month, with the proportion of persons expecting inflation to remain within the central bank’s target band of 2%-3% rising to 17.4%.

“It appears that last week’s robust GDP growth observed for the June quarter has not translated into a change in inflationary expectations, possibly because it was anticipated to some degree,” Sam Tsiaplias, a Research Fellow at the Melbourne Institute said.

Philippine Exports Fall In July

Thursday, the National Statistics Office of the Philippines announced that merchandise exports declined at a faster annual rate in July compared to the previous month, as exports of electronic goods plummeted. July marked the tenth successive month of falling exports in the country.

Exports dropped 25.4% year-on-year in July compared to the 24.8% fall in June. Economists had expected exports to fall 20.8%. Total export revenue amounted to $3.31 billion in July, down from the $4.44 billion a year ago.

The decrease in revenue was mainly due to falling exports of electronic goods, which decreased 25.2% year-on-year, and was worth $1.92 billion, or 57.8% of the total revenue. Of this, exports of components/devices (semiconductors), which comprised 42.8% of total exports, declined 24.8% in July.

Exports of cathodes & sections of cathodes, of refined copper witnessed the biggest annual decrease, down 65.5% in July. Articles of apparel & clothing accessories exports slipped 26.4% on year in July, and exports of coconut oil was down 22.6%. Woodcrafts & furniture exports and exports of ignition wiring set & other wiring sets used in vehicles, aircrafts & ships was down 29.9% and 14.3%, respectively.

Analyzing by types of goods, revenue from exports of manufactured goods amounted to $2.82 billion in July, down 22.3% from the $3.63 billion a year ago. Revenue from total agro-based products declined 11% from the year-ago period in July. Revenue from special transactions and mineral products revenue declined 4.1% and 54.4%, respectively. Also, exports of petroleum products fell 86.6% in July, while revenue from forest products was up 47.3% on year.

Shipments to most major markets fell sharply in July. The U.S. was the biggest destination for Philippine exports, with 17.6% of total exports destined for the American market. Japan was the second largest, with a 16.6% share of total exports. The Netherlands, Hong Kong and China comprised the other major destination markets.

On a monthly basis, exports slid 2.8% in July compared to the 10.3% growth in the previous month.

Last week, the Statistics Office announced that consumer prices rose 0.1% year-on-year in August compared to 0.2% in the previous month. Consumer prices excluding volatile goods were up 2.9% in August.

The Philippine peso gained against the major currencies, following the release of the export data.

BoK Holds Rate At 2% As Expected

Thursday, the Bank of Korea left its interest rate unchanged for the seventh month in a row giving time for the economy to recover strongly.

The central bank retained the seven-day repo rate at 2% as expected. The last change in the interest rate was a 50 basis point reduction in February. The central bank has reduced the key rate by 3.25 percentage points since October 2008. Many economists expects the BoK to stay pat for several months ahead and to hike next year.

BoK governor Lee Seong-Tae expressed concern over housing market. The monetary policy stance would remain accommodative even if the policy rate is raised from the record low, said Lee.

Domestic economic activity showed signs of improvement after global economic situation progressed. As domestic demand and exports staged a recovery, production increased. However, uncertainty as to the economic growth path still remains.

On September 3, the BoK had raised economic growth for the second quarter to 2.6% from 2.3%.

In August, annual inflation rose to 2.2% from July’s 1.6%. At the same time, core inflation was 3.1%, down from 3.2% in the prior month. Today, the central bank said consumer price inflation is likely to remain at a generally stable level.

Looking forward, the Monetary Policy Committee said it will maintain the accommodative policy stance for the time being.

On September 2, Fitch Ratings had raised the sovereign rating outlook of South Korea to stable from negative citing an improvement in the sovereign credit fundamentals compared to the ‘A’ peer group. The long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating was affirmed at ‘A+’ and long-term local currency IDR at ‘AA’.

BoE Holds Rate At Record Low; Continues GBP 175 Bln Asset Purchase

Thursday, the Bank of England decided to maintain its interest rate for the sixth consecutive month and also voted to continue the GBP 175 billion asset purchase programme using central bank reserves.

As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee of the central bank decided to hold the official Bank Rate paid on commercial bank reserves at 0.5%. The rate now stands at the lowest level since the central bank was established in 1694. The previous change in the rate was a reduction of 0.5 percentage points in March 2009.

The MPC expects the asset purchase programme to take another two months to complete. The scale of the programme will be kept under review, the bank said in a statement.

Initially, the central bank introduced a GBP 75 billion programme of asset purchases financed by the issuance of central bank reserves on March 5. Later, the size of the quantitative easing was raised to GBP 125 billion on May 7 and again to GBP 175 billion on August 6.

The minutes of the two-day rate setting meeting will be published on September 23.

In the previous rate setting meeting held on August 5 and 6, six members of the MPC voted to raise the size of asset purchases by GBP 50 billion to GBP 175 billion, while the other three members including Governor Mervyn King sought a GBP 75 billion increase to GBP 200 billion, minutes had revealed.

While economists and policymakers across the world are increasingly spotting signs of recovery for the global economy, the UK is expected to be left behind in severe recession.

In a recent interview to BBC, former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan said UK would be harder hit than the U.S. by the current recession and collapse in world trade.

The Paris-based Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development in its latest Interim Economic Assessment revised the 2009 GDP contraction estimate to 4.7% from 4.3%. The agency predicted a gloomier situation in the UK, while saying that the global recovery from the recession is likely to arrive earlier than expected.

The Office for National Statistics had upwardly revised the British economic contraction for the second quarter to 0.7% from 0.8%. The think-tank National Institute of Economic and Social Research said the economy grew 0.2% in the three months ended August, after a 0.3% decline in the three months ended July.

Elsewhere on Thursday, former BoE rate-setter David Blanchflower launched a scathing attack on the bank’s governor Mervyn King and criticized the monetary policy committee for not spotting the recession.

The economics professor, who foresaw recession well ahead of his colleagues on the MPC, wrote in an article published in Thursday’s New Statesman magazine that King “the old iron fist of the BoE”, dominated the MPC with his hawkish view on rates. He accused King of presiding over an institution which was ‘hobbled by group-think’.

Blanchflower expects the MPC to approve further quantitative easing by November at the very latest. He added that King may even manage to get rates down below 0.5%.

In reactions to the latest rate decision, British Chambers of Commerce’s Chief Economist David Kern said as a temporary measure, the MPC should consider the interest rate paid on deposits kept by commercial banks at the BoE and in some circumstances make this rate negative. The business lobby urged the MPC to raise the quantitative easing measures to GBP 200 billion and to buy more company debt.

Across the world, policymakers and finance ministers including Chancellor Alistair Darling have sought to continue with stimulus measures until the global economy recovers with sustainable growth.

Annual inflation in July stood at 1.8%, the same as in June, which was the lowest since September 2007. Thus, the rate stayed below the central bank’s 2% target for the second straight month.

The BoE said in its latest quarterly Inflation Report that the CPI inflation is more likely to fall below 1% in autumn, requiring an open letter from the Governor to the Chancellor. After releasing the quarterly report, King said in a press conference the economic recovery could be slow and protracted.

Weekly Jobless Claims Fall By More Than Expected

First-time claims for unemployment benefits decreased by more than expected in the week ended September 5th, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Thursday, with the data indicating that the pace of firings continues to moderate.

The report showed that initial jobless claims fell to 550,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 576,000. Economists had been expecting jobless claims to edge down to 560,000 from the 570,000 originally reported for the previous week.

With the bigger than expected decrease, jobless claims fell to their lowest level since mid-July, when seasonal issues in the auto sector skewed the data artificially lower. Excluding the July data, jobless claims were at their lowest level since early January.

Additionally, the Labor Department said that the less volatile four-week moving average edged down to 570,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 572,750.

Continuing claims, which measure the number of people receiving ongoing unemployment help, also declined in the week ended August 29th, the latest week for which the government has data.

While continuing claims fell to 6.088 million from the preceding week’s revised level of 6.247 million, Peter Boockvar, equity strategist for Miller Tabak, noted that evidence still suggests that the decrease has more to do with those not finding new jobs and exhausting their benefits.

Boockvar pointed to another increase in the number of people claiming Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC), which rose to 3.103 million in the week ended August 22nd, an increase of 73 thousand from the prior week.

The report also showed that those that are receiving extended benefits past the EUC fell by about 19 thousand to 439,000.

“Bottom line though, its clear that the pace of firings continue to moderate with the pace of hiring’s still in question,” Boockvar said.

Last Friday, the Labor Department released a separate report showing that employment fell by less than expected in the month of August, although the report also showed a much bigger than expected increase by the unemployment rate.

The report showed that non-farm payroll employment fell by 216,000 jobs in August following a revised decrease of 276,000 jobs in July. Economists had expected a loss of about 230,000 jobs compared to the loss of 247,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

While job losses continued in many of the major industry sectors, the Labor Department noted that the declines have moderated in recent months.

Despite the slower pace of job losses, the Labor Department also said that the unemployment rate jumped to 9.7 percent in August from 9.4 percent in July. With the increase, which exceeded economist estimates, the unemployment rate rose to a new 26-year high.

Surge In Imports Results In Wider U.S. Trade Deficit In July

With the value of imports increasing at a much faster pace than the value of exports, the Commerce Department released a report on Thursday showing that the U.S. trade deficit widened by much more than expected in July.

The report showed that the trade deficit widened to $32.0 billion in July from a revised $27.5 billion in June. Economists had been expecting the deficit to widen to $27.3 billion from the $27.0 billion originally reported for the previous month.

A jump in the value of imports contributed to the wider deficit, with the value of imports increasing by 4.7 percent to $159.6 billion in July from $152.4 billion in June.

The increase in the value of imports outpaced the increase in the value of exports, which rose by 2.2 percent to $127.6 billion in July from $124.9 billion in June.

While the surge in imports points to an increase in U.S. domestic demand, the increase could limit the strength of third quarter gross domestic product growth, as imports are subtracted when
calculating GDP.

“Net trade is unlikely to support U.S. real GDP growth in the current quarter to the same extent as in the second quarter,” said Christoph Balz, an analyst for Commerzbank. “Indeed, the July data alone would suggest that it could subtract from growth.”

Balz added, “A turnaround in private investment and inventory rebuilding, however, should lift growth markedly in the third quarter.”

While the increase in the value of imports was partly due to an increase in crude oil prices, the deficit still widened by almost $4 billion excluding petroleum products.

The report also showed that the goods deficit widened to $42.7 billion in July from $38.3 billion in June, while the services surplus narrowed to $10.7 billion in July from $10.8 billion in the previous month.

Additionally, the Commerce Department noted that the trade deficit with China widened to $20.4 billion in July from $18.4 billion in the previous month. The trade deficit with the European Union also jumped to $8.0 billion in July from $4.5 billion in June.

Chinese Industrial Output Grows, Prices Decline Moderately

China’s economy was firmly on the recovery track, a slew of economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics Friday showed. The economic indicators showed an improvement in August, with industrial production, retail sales and urban investment in fixed assets all improving, while consumer and producer prices declined at a slower annual rate.

Consumer prices were down 1.2% on year in August compared to the 1.8% contraction in July, representing a slower rate of decline than the 1.3% drop expected by economists. Month-on-month, consumer prices were up 0.5% in August.

In terms of commodities, housing prices recorded the biggest annual fall, down 5.4% in August. Transportation & communication prices decreased 2.9%, and clothing prices dropped 2.2%. The fall was partly offset by food prices, which increased 0.5%, while prices for tobacco, liquor & articles were up 1.3%. Healthcare & personal articles prices rose 0.9% in August.

Producer prices slid 7.9% year-on-year in August compared to the 8.2% decline in the previous month. The drop was roughly in line with economists’ expectations for a 7.8% annual contraction.
On a monthly basis, producer prices climbed 0.8% in August, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth.

Producer prices for means of production decreased 9.7% on year in August. Of this, prices in the mining & quarrying industry were down 25.9%, and the raw materials industry dropped 11.5%. Prices in the processing industry slipped 6.9% in August. Prices for means of livelihood were down 1.9% on year, with food prices and durable consumer goods prices falling 2.3% each. Also, purchaser’s prices for raw materials, fuel & power contracted 11.4% year-on-year. Of this, prices for non-ferrous metals, fuel & power, ferrous metals, and raw chemical materials & wire decreased 20.9%, 17%, 19.2% and 11.3%, respectively.

Retail sales were also roughly in line with expectations, gaining 15.4% on year in August compared to forecasts for a 15.3% rise, and were worth a total of 1.01 trillion yuan. Retail sales had risen 15.2% in July.

Analyzing by commodities, sales of grain & oil went up 12.7% year-on-year in August. Clothing sales increased 23.3%, and sales of articles for daily use was up 15.6%. Sales of motor vehicles and building & decoration materials rose 34.8% and 36.6%, respectively.

Industrial production was up 12.3% on year, topping forecasts for a 11.9% annual increase after the 10.8% gain in the previous month. August was the fourth consecutive month which witnessed an acceleration of annual growth.

All 39 industrial sectors showed year-on-year growth in August. Significant increases were reported in the textile industry, which grew 9.8%, and the raw chemical materials & chemical products industry, up 18.2%. The manufacture of non-metallic mineral products and the manufacture of general machinery was up 17.3% and 12%, respectively.

In terms of products, the output of coal climbed 14.6% over the previous year in August. The output of crude oil was up 1.6%, and electricity output rose 9.3%. The production of motor vehicles soared 90% in August.

The Bureau also announced that the urban fixed asset investment for the period of January to August, increased 33% year-on-year and amounted to 11.3 trillion yuan. Economists were looking for 32.7% growth.

From January to August, Investment in coal mining & washing was up 36% compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. Investment in production & supply of electric power & heat power increased 23.5%, while investment in railway transport soared 103.5%.

The Chinese yuan rose against the dollar following the release of August data.

European Economics Preview: UK Producer Prices Data Due

Friday, major reports due for the day are British producer prices and German wholesale prices.

At 2.00am ET, the German Federal Statistical office is slated to release wholesale prices details.

A slew of statistical reports are due at 3.00am ET. The Spanish statistical office is scheduled to issue CPI for August. Annually, consumer prices are expected to fall 0.8% in August. Meanwhile, Czech construction and industrial output reports are due.

The Statistics Sweden is set to issue final data for the second quarter GDP. The economy remained flat on a sequential basis in the second quarter. In the meantime, Dutch manufacturing and trade balance reports are due.

At 4.00am ET, Italian industrial output details are due. Industrial production is expected to rise 0.4% month-on-month in July compared to a 1.2% fall in June. After declining 21.9% in June, economists forecast 21% annual fall in July.

At 4.30am ET, the Office for National Statistics is slated to issue UK producer prices data for August. Input prices are forecast to rise 1% month-on-month in August versus 1.4% fall in July. Annually, input prices are expected to drop 8.4%. Meanwhile, monthly growth in output prices are expected at 0.3%.

Japan GDP Grows Less Than Estimated In Q2

Japan downwardly revised its economic growth for the second quarter, to reflect a steeper fall in domestic demand that was partly offset by a faster growth in exports, an official report showed Friday.

The Cabinet Office revised down the quarterly growth in the gross domestic product for the second quarter to 0.6% from 0.9% reported on August 17. Economists had expected the growth figures to be left unchanged from the preliminary numbers.

Domestic demand contracted 1% sequentially in the second quarter, faster than a 0.7% fall estimated earlier.

Private demand contracted 1.7%, quicker than a 1.3% decline initially recorded. This reflected the slower growth of 0.7% in private consumption compared to a 0.8% growth estimated initially. Further, business investment contracted at a faster pace of 4.8% compared to a 4.3% fall estimated earlier.

Public demand grew at a slower pace of 1.1% compared to a 1.2% growth in the preliminary estimates. Within this, the growth in investments made by the public sector eased to 7.5% from 8.1% initially.

Gross fixed capital formation fell at a quicker pace of 3.1% than a 2.6% fall estimated earlier. Core machinery orders dropped 9.3% in July, reversing a 9.7% rise in the preceding month, official reports showed Thursday, indicating firms were still cutting investments.

Exports rose 6.4%, faster than a 6.3% growth seen in the preliminary estimates, but imports fell 5.1%, unchanged from its initial reading.

On an annual basis, the economic growth was reduced to 2.3% from the initial estimate of 3.7%. Economists expected the growth figure to be held at 3.7%.

In the meantime, other reports seems to point that the Japanese economy is on the road to recovery. The leading index, which measures the direction the economy will take, rose for the fifth consecutive month to 83 in July from 80.9 in June. Moreover, the coincident index, which measures the current state of the economy, increased for the fourth consecutive month to 89.6 from 88.6.

Earlier this week, the Cabinet Office kept its economic assessment for the economy unchanged and said the world’s second largest economy was showing signs of picking up, even as it faced record high unemployment. On the basis of the latest figures, the jobless rate stood at 5.7% in July, up from 5.4% in June.

Further, the rating agency Fitch Ratings affirmed Japan’s long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings or IDRs at ‘AA’ and ‘AA-’, respectively, with a stable outlook.

“Japan’s sovereign ratings reflect a balance between the country’s exceptionally strong external balance sheet and its deteriorating public finance position, which is already among the weakest of the advanced economies,” the firm noted.

Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan’s board member Miyako Suda pointed out that the need for extraordinary measures were diminishing as the corporate financing conditions showed improvements.

UK Factory Gate Prices Rise In August

UK output prices increased in August on oil prices, official data showed Friday. Meanwhile, prices paid by companies to buy materials and fuels recorded the fastest monthly growth since June 2008.

Reflecting price rises of other manufactured, petroleum and chemical products, output prices rose 0.2% month-on-month in August, the same as in July, a report from the Office for National Statistics revealed. The expected growth rate was 0.3%. Price increases in oil and chemical products were partially offset by a drop in tobacco and alcohol product prices.

Annual decline in output prices was the smallest since May with prices falling 0.4% in August, smaller than July’s 1.3% annual drop and the 0.5% decrease expected by economists.

Core output price inflation that excludes food, beverages, tobacco and petroleum accelerated to 0.7% annually from just 0.1% recorded in July. At the same time, core monthly inflation halved to 0.2% from 0.4%. While, annual core inflation came in smaller than the 0.8% rise expected, monthly inflation matched economists’ expectations.

Input prices grew 2.2% on a monthly basis in August, reversing a 1.1% fall in July. Input prices increased more than the expected growth of 1%. August’s growth was the biggest since June 2008.

Meanwhile, the input price index for materials and fuels purchased by manufacturing industry slipped 7.5% in August from the prior year compared to a larger decline of 12.2% in July and a consensus forecast for a 8.4% drop.

The ONS is set to issue the CPI data for August on September 15. The rise is factory-gate prices suggest an upward pressure on consumer prices. Consumer prices are forecast to rise 0.3% month-on-month in August, after staying flat in July. Annual inflation is expected to slow to 1.6% from July’s 1.8%.

The Bank of England said in its latest quarterly Inflation Report that the CPI inflation is more likely to fall below 1% in autumn, requiring an open letter from the Governor to the Chancellor.

On September 10, the central bank had maintained its interest rate for the sixth consecutive month at 0.5% and also voted to continue the GBP 175 billion asset purchase programme using central bank reserves.